Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.
Modeling with Probability
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Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. (e.g., Find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast food restaurant.)
Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. (e.g., Compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident.)